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NFL 12/3

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bigwinner
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NFL 12/3

Post by bigwinner »

49ers @ Eagles: Eagles +3

The line opened as a pickem and is now at -3, I don’t see the value and this is why. The Eagles have outscored the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills 117-91. San Fransisco has faced anemic offenses. They’ve played 1 top 10 offense all year, compared to 4 for the Eagles. The Eagles are tied with the 49ers #3 overall for top offense at 28.2 ppg, and they’re doing this with a new OC.

West Coast teams coming off a win that are going to the East Coast are 29% ATS. Historically, you add 11% loss risk when moving from -1 to -3.5. The eagles keep it close.

Falcons @ Jets: Jets +120

Jets defense just kinda wins games. Look how the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles offenses all struggled at MetLife, it wasn’t pleasant for them. Boyle is figuring it out. Hums of a Rodgers return keeps the team eager. While ATL has the south to fight for, Ridder and Co. struggle to score against the Jets D. Give me Jets in a close game.

Chiefs @ Packers: Chiefs -6

Mahomes comes into Lambeau and tears apart what is a defense in the rebuild. While Jordan Love has shown promise, the Chiefs come in with the 3rd overall defense in PPG. Mahomes and the Chiefs know the importance of home field in the AFC and will cover -6 here.




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