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Championship Sunday Notes
Moderators: theone1324, Kenny981
Championship Sunday Notes
Late start because I'm still disheartened from last week. Got 3/4 again for the second week in a row and the 4 game parlay has eluded me yet again. If either the Buffalo or Niners game goes over I'm in good shape, but 4-0 unders last week killed me.
Last Week 3-1 plays. I won't count that Cincy lean because i pulled it and went with the over instead.
With only two games on the docket with the best of the best left it's not my specialty.
I think I'm going with the super bowl rematch of 4 years ago.
Kansas City -1.5 (L1) (U2) vs. Cincinnati (W1) (U1). Total 48.5. The Bengals are winners of 10 games in a row, and 14 out of their last 16, and also covering 14 of those 16 games. So they are the hottest team left in the playoffs. The Chiefs get it done, winning 15 out of the 18 games, but are only 5-12-1 ATS.
Cincinnati comes in winning the last 3 meetings.
2022 Game 1: Cincinnati won 34-31 as a 3.5 pt home dog. It went over the total of 51
2022 Game 2: Cincinnati won 27-24 as a 7 pt road underdog to reach the SB. It went Under the total of 54.5
2023: Cincinnati won 27-24 as a 2.5 pt home dog. It went under the total of 53.
This has has been moving all week. Cincinnati will still be missing their offensive lineman, which didn't seem to matter last week. The big question marks are Mahomes with his high ankle sprain, and Kelce with his back injury. Kelce has practiced all week though, so he will play. And Mahomes is going to tough it out under all circumstances I'm sure.
Initial lean Kansas City here. I think the line is fair. Cincinnati would be favored on a neutral field, as they should be being the hottest team in football, winning the last 3 against the Chiefs, blasting the Buffalo Bills last week, and covering 14 of 16. Rare opportunity to grab the Chiefs giving less than a FG when they are 15-3 SU themselves this season.
Also a tiny lean to the UNDER. The last two games have gone under the total, but have hit 51. The 48.5 seems a bit low to me.
San Francisco +2.5 (W4) (U1) at Philly (W1) (U3). Total 45.5. This is the harder of the two games for me. As I expected last week, Philly moved the ball at will against the Giants, and the defense shut them down, leading to the biggest blowout of the playoffs 38-7.
San Francisco comes in winners of 12 games in a row, so I guess they are hotter than Cincy. 10-2 ATS during that timeframe. 8-0 in games Purdy has played, and 7-1 ATS in those games.
Philly is 15-1 in games Jalen Hurts plays. The only loss being to Washington who ran the ball down their throats on MNF.
Those looking for Purdy regression have found some the last couple of weeks. Purdy didn't play well in the first half against Seattle, and lead only 1 TD drive last week against a very vulnerable Dallas passing defense. So those saying he's due for a bad game are glossing over that he hasn't played well in parts of the last 2.
Also note that Christian McCaffrey has a calf injury. He sat out some practice for maintenance but will play.
This is kind of a probability/symmetry kinda thing. I'm probably taking the Niners so I can have:
one dog / one favorite
one home team / one away team
one team on a 12 game winning streak to win / one team with a 10 game winning streak to lose.
I usually go with playoff experience when it gets this close to the end of the season, but Cincy broke that last year making the SB and covering the SB.
The total I'm not sure about. Rather than taking the total I'm looking into picking an Anytime TD scorer, and that person will likely be Jalen Hurts rushing TD. May also take Mccaffrey TD as well.
System Plays:
None
I need to see something before finalizing my picks tomorrow. But those are the thoughts for now.
2022 Playoffs
6-2 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last Week 3-1 plays. I won't count that Cincy lean because i pulled it and went with the over instead.
With only two games on the docket with the best of the best left it's not my specialty.
I think I'm going with the super bowl rematch of 4 years ago.
Kansas City -1.5 (L1) (U2) vs. Cincinnati (W1) (U1). Total 48.5. The Bengals are winners of 10 games in a row, and 14 out of their last 16, and also covering 14 of those 16 games. So they are the hottest team left in the playoffs. The Chiefs get it done, winning 15 out of the 18 games, but are only 5-12-1 ATS.
Cincinnati comes in winning the last 3 meetings.
2022 Game 1: Cincinnati won 34-31 as a 3.5 pt home dog. It went over the total of 51
2022 Game 2: Cincinnati won 27-24 as a 7 pt road underdog to reach the SB. It went Under the total of 54.5
2023: Cincinnati won 27-24 as a 2.5 pt home dog. It went under the total of 53.
This has has been moving all week. Cincinnati will still be missing their offensive lineman, which didn't seem to matter last week. The big question marks are Mahomes with his high ankle sprain, and Kelce with his back injury. Kelce has practiced all week though, so he will play. And Mahomes is going to tough it out under all circumstances I'm sure.
Initial lean Kansas City here. I think the line is fair. Cincinnati would be favored on a neutral field, as they should be being the hottest team in football, winning the last 3 against the Chiefs, blasting the Buffalo Bills last week, and covering 14 of 16. Rare opportunity to grab the Chiefs giving less than a FG when they are 15-3 SU themselves this season.
Also a tiny lean to the UNDER. The last two games have gone under the total, but have hit 51. The 48.5 seems a bit low to me.
San Francisco +2.5 (W4) (U1) at Philly (W1) (U3). Total 45.5. This is the harder of the two games for me. As I expected last week, Philly moved the ball at will against the Giants, and the defense shut them down, leading to the biggest blowout of the playoffs 38-7.
San Francisco comes in winners of 12 games in a row, so I guess they are hotter than Cincy. 10-2 ATS during that timeframe. 8-0 in games Purdy has played, and 7-1 ATS in those games.
Philly is 15-1 in games Jalen Hurts plays. The only loss being to Washington who ran the ball down their throats on MNF.
Those looking for Purdy regression have found some the last couple of weeks. Purdy didn't play well in the first half against Seattle, and lead only 1 TD drive last week against a very vulnerable Dallas passing defense. So those saying he's due for a bad game are glossing over that he hasn't played well in parts of the last 2.
Also note that Christian McCaffrey has a calf injury. He sat out some practice for maintenance but will play.
This is kind of a probability/symmetry kinda thing. I'm probably taking the Niners so I can have:
one dog / one favorite
one home team / one away team
one team on a 12 game winning streak to win / one team with a 10 game winning streak to lose.
I usually go with playoff experience when it gets this close to the end of the season, but Cincy broke that last year making the SB and covering the SB.
The total I'm not sure about. Rather than taking the total I'm looking into picking an Anytime TD scorer, and that person will likely be Jalen Hurts rushing TD. May also take Mccaffrey TD as well.
System Plays:
None
I need to see something before finalizing my picks tomorrow. But those are the thoughts for now.
2022 Playoffs
6-2 plays, 1-2 leans, 1-0 Half System Plays
2022 Regular Season
43-46 Plays, 24-28 Leans, 4-4 System Plays, 2-0 Half System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs